The Outlook for AR/VR Headsets Is Expected to Improve as Mixed Reality and Extended Reality Gains Acceptance, According to IDC

IDC forecasts headset shipments will return to growth later this year with volume growing 7.5% over 2023. Newer headsets and lower price points will help with the turnaround expected later this year.

Global shipments of augmented reality and virtual reality (AR/VR) headsets declined 67.4% year over year in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24), according to new data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker. The decline in shipments was expected as the market transitions to include new categories such as Mixed Reality (MR) and Extended Reality (ER). Despite the decline, the average selling price (ASP) rose to over $1000 as Apple entered the market and incumbents such as Meta focused on premium headsets such as the Quest 3.

IDC recently revised its taxonomy, incorporating two new categories: Mixed Reality which occludes the user's vision but provides a view of the real world with outward facing cameras, and Extended Reality, which employs a see-though display but mirrors content from another device or offers a simplistic heads-up display.

Meta again led the market in 1Q24 in terms of share, while Apple's recent entry into the market enabled it to capture the second position. ByteDance, Xreal, and HTC rounded out the top 5. Both the Quest 3 and the Vision Pro helped educate users and enticed developers to create mixed reality content, blending the digital and physical worlds. Unfortunately, this has come at a premium for users.

"With mixed reality on the rise, expect strictly virtual reality headsets to fade in the coming years as brands and developers devise new hardware and experiences to help users eventually transition to augmented reality further down the line," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager, Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers at IDC. "Meanwhile, extended reality displays are set to garner consumer attention as they offer a big screen experience today while incorporating AI and heads-up displays in the near future."

Although ASPs for the overall market crested above the $1000 mark, this is not representative of all products. "ASPs for augmented reality (AR) headsets have almost always been above this price point, but ASPs for VR, MR, and ER headsets have typically been lower," said Ramon T. Llamas, research director with IDC's Augmented and Virtual Reality team. "Apple's Vision Pro drove ASPs higher for MR headsets, but the addition of lower cost devices from Meta and HTC have kept those ASPs from going much higher. Meanwhile, there were many devices for VR and ER priced below $500.

"Looking ahead, we anticipate ASP erosion across all products," Llamas continued. "Because the overall market is still in its early stages with more expensive first- and second-generation devices, prices will be high even as early adopters buy them. In order to reach scale in the mass market, vendors will need to reduce prices on later and upcoming devices."

IDC forecasts headset shipments will return to growth later this year with volume growing 7.5% over 2023. Newer headsets and lower price points will help with the turnaround expected later this year. Beyond that, headset shipment volume is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.9% from 2024–2028.

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IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker® provides details on vendors, technology, market opportunity, and trend analysis in the newly created augmented reality and virtual reality device market. The tracker breaks the headset market into two different categories — augmented reality and virtual reality — and provides detailed information concerning these product categories in an easy-to-use web deliverable. IDC's tracker products provide reliable, accurate, and independent market research as a base to create quantitative market analyses and to study historical and future trends.