2025 Will See Increased QR Code Payments but Payment Card IC ASPs Will Not Return to Pre-Covid Levels

ABI Research's 5th annual Trend Report identifies the key Digital Payment Technologies trend that will come to fruition —and the 1 that won't—in 2025

As 2025 kicks off, predictions abound on the technology innovations expected in the year ahead. In its new whitepaper, 101 Technology Trends That Will — and Won't —Shape 2025, analysts from global technology intelligence firm ABI Research. ABI Research analysts identify 54 trends that will shape the technology market and 47 others that, although attracting vast amounts of speculation and commentary, are less likely to move the needle over the next twelve months. In the Digital Payment Technologies space, 2025 will see increased QR code payment acceptance but little growth for payment card IC ASPs.

"2024 has been marked by challenges, from global conflicts and inflationary pressures to political uncertainty. These factors have strained enterprise and consumer spending, leading to market inertia, short-term technology investments, sidelined capital, and the exposure of vulnerable suppliers," says Stuart Carlaw, Chief Research Officer at ABI Research. "From a technology perspective, many industries and end markets are in that awkward stage of technology adoption where they are formulating implementation strategies, assessing solutions and partners, and trying to see if they have the resources needed to roll out solutions at scale. This is a particularly sensitive time, which tends to suggest 2025 will have tech implementers and end users on the brink of a period of a massive technology shift as they work through these issues."

What Will Happen in 2025:

QR code payment acceptance will continue to increase with use cases expanding

Although QR code payment acceptance is prevalent in countries such as China and growing in emerging digital payment markets, including in India, use cases and potential growth areas are not limited to these countries. Significant and continued investments by vendors, including PayPal, Stripe, and SumUp, are setting the foundation for increased adoption in other mature and established economies with use cases expanding. Although QR codes are already being used by many Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and pop-up retail businesses, 2025 will mark the year when the technology begins to shift from one niche to partial mainstream.

What Won't Happen in 2025:

Payment card IC ASPs will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, chipset pricing has been on a continual rise, driven by increased pricing in myriad manufacturing areas, including energy, raw material, transit pricing, and inflation, driving up wages. The chip shortage further compounded this, and according to ABI Research, the Average Selling Price (ASP) for a payment card Integrated Circuit (IC) increased by approximately +30% between 2020 and 2023. However, despite pricing pressures returning, the cost of payment ICs is some years away from matching pre-COVID-19 levels. Although 2025 will mark another year of pricing deprecation, it will not be until around 2028 when pricing is expected to drop to levels similar to those achieved in 2019 steadily.

For more trends that will and won't happen in 2025, download the whitepaper, 101 Technology Trends That Will—and Won't—Shape 2025.